Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014338 0.016214 0.018259 0.020656 0.023391 0.026419 0.030029
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011560 0.014157 0.017236 0.021165 0.026063 0.031990 0.039739
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009736 0.012565 0.016109 0.020898 0.027234 0.035378 0.046715
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008473 0.011409 0.015256 0.020704 0.028273 0.038502 0.053511
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007517 0.010496 0.014555 0.020537 0.029210 0.041455 0.060273
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006958 0.010041 0.014391 0.021041 0.031068 0.045804 0.069441
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006297 0.009355 0.013805 0.020835 0.031810 0.048533 0.076414
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.005964 0.009109 0.013825 0.021511 0.033918 0.053497 0.087390
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005354 0.008376 0.013027 0.020817 0.033770 0.054847 0.092566
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004905 0.007851 0.012497 0.020486 0.034148 0.057046 0.099359
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004424 0.007230 0.011755 0.019725 0.033710 0.057798 0.103648
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004271 0.007133 0.011859 0.020394 0.035785 0.063068 0.116662
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004091 0.006982 0.011869 0.020918 0.037689 0.068292 0.130351
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003915 0.006824 0.011853 0.021397 0.039562 0.073663 0.145017
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003641 0.006467 0.011455 0.021129 0.039996 0.076340 0.154590
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003405 0.006158 0.011113 0.020933 0.040536 0.079260 0.164988
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003194 0.005879 0.010803 0.020764 0.041107 0.082280 0.175943
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003089 0.005789 0.010839 0.021274 0.043094 0.088390 0.194393
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002905 0.005532 0.010532 0.021066 0.043564 0.091353 0.206109
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002838 0.005497 0.010656 0.021749 0.045988 0.098762 0.229062
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002624 0.005155 0.010141 0.021048 0.045333 0.099300 0.235672
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002465 0.004914 0.009813 0.020713 0.045453 0.101589 0.246832
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002277 0.004596 0.009304 0.019942 0.044514 0.101337 0.251570